To forecast the olive oil campaign for 2024/25, we will first focus on Spain, being the largest producer of Olive Oil and setting the trend. Within Spain, we will concentrate on the autonomous communities of Andalucía, Castilla-La Mancha, and Extremadura.
We will then proceed with other producing countries such as Italy, Greece, Portugal, Turkey, and Morocco.
The factors considered include:
Current weather conditions
Olive grove behavior
Alternate bearing
Weather Conditions:
Temperatures: The spring and summer of 2024 have been warmer than usual, which could negatively affect flowering and fruit set.
Rainfall: The autumn and winter rains of 2023/24 were moderate but insufficient to compensate for the prolonged drought of previous years.
Olive Grove Behavior:
Alternate Bearing: After a low-production campaign in 2023/24 due to alternate bearing, a recovery year is expected in 2024/25.
Phytosanitary Status: Pests and diseases have been controlled, although the olive fly has shown slight incidence in some areas.
Rainfall:
Accumulated rainfall in 2024 has been below the historical average, affecting water availability for irrigation and optimal olive grove development.
Forecast:
A medium-high production campaign is expected, provided that late spring and summer rains are sufficient to maintain soil moisture.
Weather Conditions:
Temperatures: Similar to Andalucía, temperatures have been higher than normal, especially in summer.
Rainfall: Precipitation has been irregular, with a dry winter and some spring storms.
Olive Grove Behavior:
Alternate Bearing: Production in 2023/24 was moderate, indicating potential recovery for 2024/25.
Phytosanitary Status: No major phytosanitary issues have been reported, although monitoring of leaf spot and other diseases continues.
Rainfall:
Rainfall has been low, affecting the recharge of aquifers and reservoirs used for irrigation.
Forecast:
Production could be moderate, depending largely on spring and summer rains.
Weather Conditions:
Temperatures: Temperatures have been above average, with especially hot summers.
Rainfall: Precipitation has been scarce, similar to other regions.
Olive Grove Behavior:
Alternate Bearing: Extremadura shows a less marked trend of alternate bearing but remains a factor to consider. The previous campaign was moderate.
Phytosanitary Status: Good control of pests and diseases, though constant vigilance is necessary.
Rainfall:
Rainfall has been average/low, affecting water availability for irrigation but with enough reserves to keep the crop in acceptable conditions.
General Forecast for Spain:
A medium to medium/high production campaign is expected with variability depending on water availability and climatic conditions during the critical fruit development months. A recovery in olive oil production is anticipated due to alternate bearing affecting the previous campaign and spring rains. However, the lack of sufficient rain for the rest of the year could limit total potential.
Weather Conditions:
Temperatures: Italy has experienced increased temperatures during the spring and summer of 2024, similar to other Mediterranean countries. This has negatively affected flowering and fruit set in some regions.
Rainfall: Precipitation has been irregular, with a dry winter followed by intermittent spring rains. Regions most affected by the lack of rain include Puglia, Calabria, and Sicily.
Olive Grove Behavior:
Alternate Bearing: Production in 2023/24 was low in several regions due to the natural alternation of olive groves. A recovery in production is expected for 2024/25.
Phytosanitary Status: Pests and diseases have been generally controlled, although the olive fly and leaf spot have shown presence in certain areas, requiring vigilance and treatment.
Rainfall:
Accumulated rainfall has been below the historical average in many key production regions, affecting water availability for irrigation and optimal olive grove development.
Weather Conditions:
Temperatures: Very hot summers and warm springs, which could affect flowering and fruit set.
Rainfall: Sparse precipitation during winter and spring, though some occasional storms have provided relief.
Olive Grove Behavior:
Alternate Bearing: Higher production is expected compared to the previous year due to alternation.
Phytosanitary Status: Effective pest control, though olive fly requires monitoring.
Rainfall:
Insufficient, which could limit production if not compensated with adequate irrigation systems.
Forecast:
Medium-high production, depending on spring and summer rains.
Weather Conditions:
Temperatures: High, with especially hot summers.
Rainfall: Sparse and poorly distributed throughout the year.
Olive Grove Behavior:
Alternate Bearing: Alternation indicates potential recovery in production for 2024/25.
Phytosanitary Status: Pests under control, with continuous monitoring needed.
Rainfall:
Low, affecting irrigation capacity.
Forecast:
Moderate production, highly dependent on climatic conditions in the coming months.
Weather Conditions:
Temperatures: Very high during summer and warm spring
Rainfall: Insufficient, with persistent drought in some areas.
Olive Grove Behavior:
Alternate Bearing: Hope for recovery in production after a low-production year.
Phytosanitary Status: Good management of pests and diseases.
Rainfall:
Very low, limiting olive grove growth and development.
Medium production, highly dependent on water availability and irrigation management. A recovery in olive oil production is expected for the 2024/25 campaign, especially in Puglia and Calabria, thanks to alternate bearing and improved agronomic practices.
Weather Conditions:
Temperatures: Greece has experienced higher-than-usual temperatures during the spring and summer of 2024, affecting flowering and fruit set in some regions.
Rainfall: Precipitation has been irregular, with a dry winter followed by intermittent spring rains. Regions most affected by the lack of rain include Peloponnese, Crete, and Central Macedonia.
Olive Grove Behavior:
Alternate Bearing: Production in 2023/24 was low in several regions due to the natural alternation of olive groves. A recovery in production is expected for 2024/25.
Phytosanitary Status: Pests and diseases have been generally controlled, although the olive fly and leaf spot have shown presence in certain areas, requiring vigilance and treatment.
Rainfall:
Accumulated rainfall has been below the historical average in many key production regions, affecting water availability for irrigation and optimal olive grove development.
Weather Conditions:
Temperatures: Very hot summers and warm springs, which could affect flowering and fruit set.
Rainfall: Sparse precipitation during winter and spring, though some occasional storms have provided relief.
Olive Grove Behavior:
Alternate Bearing: Higher production is expected compared to the previous year due to alternation.
Phytosanitary Status: Effective pest control, though olive fly requires monitoring.
Rainfall:
Insufficient, which could limit production if not compensated with adequate irrigation systems.
Forecast:
Medium-high production, depending on spring and summer rains.
Weather Conditions:
Temperatures: High, with especially hot summers.
Rainfall: Sparse and poorly distributed throughout the year.
Olive Grove Behavior:
Alternate Bearing: Alternation indicates potential recovery in production for 2024/25.
Phytosanitary Status: Pests under control, with continuous monitoring needed.
Rainfall:
Low, affecting irrigation capacity.
Forecast:
Moderate production, highly dependent on climatic conditions in the coming months
Weather Conditions:
Temperatures: Very high during summer and warm spring.
Rainfall: Insufficient, with persistent drought in some areas.
Olive Grove Behavior:
Alternate Bearing: Hope for recovery in production after a low-production year.
Rainfall:
Very low, limiting olive grove growth and development.
Medium production, highly dependent on water availability and irrigation management. A recovery in olive oil production is expected for the 2024/25 campaign, especially in Peloponnese and Crete, thanks to alternate bearing and improved agronomic practices.
Weather Conditions:
Temperatures: Portugal has experienced higher-than-usual temperatures during the spring and summer of 2024, affecting flowering and fruit set in some regions.
Rainfall: Precipitation has been irregular, with a dry winter followed by intermittent spring rains. Regions most affected by the lack of rain include Alentejo, Trás-os-Montes, and Algarve.
Olive Grove Behavior:
Alternate Bearing: Production in 2023/24 was low in several regions due to the natural alternation of olive groves. A recovery in production is expected for 2024/25.
Phytosanitary Status: Pests and diseases have been generally controlled, although the olive fly and leaf spot have shown presence in certain areas, requiring vigilance and treatment.
Rainfall:
Accumulated rainfall has been below the historical average in many key production regions, affecting water availability for irrigation and optimal olive grove development.
Weather Conditions:
Temperatures: Very hot summers and warm springs, which could affect flowering and fruit set.
Rainfall: Sparse precipitation during winter and spring, though some occasional storms have provided relief.
Olive Grove Behavior:
Alternate Bearing: Higher production is expected compared to the previous year due to alternation.
Phytosanitary Status: Effective pest control, though olive fly requires monitoring.
Rainfall:
Insufficient, which could limit production if not compensated with adequate irrigation systems.
Forecast:
Medium-high production, depending on spring and summer rains.
Weather Conditions:
Temperatures: High, with especially hot summers.
Rainfall: Sparse and poorly distributed throughout the year.
Olive Grove Behavior:
Alternate Bearing: Alternation indicates potential recovery in production for 2024/25.
Phytosanitary Status: Pests under control, with continuous monitoring needed.
Rainfall:
Low, affecting irrigation capacity.
Forecast:
Moderate production, highly dependent on climatic conditions in the coming months.
Weather Conditions:
Temperatures: Very high during summer and warm spring.
Rainfall: Insufficient, with persistent drought in some areas.
Olive Grove Behavior:
Alternate Bearing: Hope for recovery in production after a low-production year.
Phytosanitary Status: Good management of pests and diseases.
Rainfall:
Very low, limiting olive grove growth and development.
Medium/high production, highly dependent on water availability and irrigation management. A recovery in olive oil production is expected for the 2024/25 campaign, especially in Alentejo and Trás-os-Montes, thanks to alternate bearing and improved agronomic practices. Super-intensive olive groves provide an advantage in terms of efficiency and water management. A large campaign is expected, even being talked about as a record campaign.
Weather Conditions:
Temperatures: Turkey has experienced higher-than-usual temperatures during the spring and summer of 2024, affecting flowering and fruit set in some regions.
Rainfall: Precipitation has been irregular, with a dry winter followed by intermittent spring rains. Regions most affected by the lack of rain include the Aegean, Marmara, and Mediterranean.
Olive Grove Behavior:
Alternate Bearing: Production in 2023/24 was low in several regions due to the natural alternation of olive groves. A recovery in production is expected for 2024/25.
Phytosanitary Status: Pests and diseases have been generally controlled, although the olive fly and leaf spot have shown presence in certain areas, requiring vigilance and treatment.
Rainfall:
Accumulated rainfall has been below the historical average in many key production regions, affecting water availability for irrigation and optimal olive grove development.
Weather Conditions:
Temperatures: Very hot summers and warm springs, which could affect flowering and fruit set.
Rainfall: Sparse precipitation during winter and spring, though some occasional storms have provided relief.
Olive Grove Behavior:
Alternate Bearing: Higher production is expected compared to the previous year due to alternation.
Phytosanitary Status: Effective pest control, though olive fly requires monitoring.
Rainfall:
Insufficient, which could limit production if not compensated with adequate irrigation systems.
Forecast:
Medium-high production, depending on spring and summer rains.
Weather Conditions:
Temperatures: High, with especially hot summers.
Rainfall: Sparse and poorly distributed throughout the year.
Olive Grove Behavior:
Alternate Bearing: Alternation indicates potential recovery in production for 2024/25.
Phytosanitary Status: Pests under control, with continuous monitoring needed.
Rainfall:
Low, affecting irrigation capacity.
Forecast:
Moderate production, highly dependent on climatic conditions in the coming months.
Weather Conditions:
Temperatures: Very high during summer and warm spring.
Rainfall: Insufficient, with persistent drought in some areas.
Olive Grove Behavior:
Alternate Bearing: Hope for recovery in production after a low-production year.
Phytosanitary Status: Good management of pests and diseases.
Rainfall:
Very low, limiting olive grove growth and development.
Medium production, highly dependent on water availability and irrigation management. A recovery in olive oil production is expected for the 2024/25 campaign, especially in the Aegean and Marmara regions, thanks to alternate bearing and improved agronomic practices. The adoption of more intensive production systems provides an advantage in terms of efficiency and water management.
Weather Conditions:
Temperatures: Morocco has experienced higher-than-usual temperatures during the spring and summer of 2024, affecting flowering and fruit set in some regions.
Rainfall: Precipitation has been irregular, with a dry winter followed by intermittent spring rains. Regions most affected by the lack of rain include Meknes, Fes, and Marrakech.
Olive Grove Behavior:
Alternate Bearing: Production in 2023/24 was low in several regions due to the natural alternation of olive groves. A recovery in production is expected for 2024/25.
Phytosanitary Status: Pests and diseases have been generally controlled, although the olive fly and leaf spot have shown presence in certain areas, requiring vigilance and treatment.
Rainfall:
Weather Conditions:
Olive Grove Behavior:
Rainfall:
Insufficient, which could limit production if not compensated with adequate irrigation systems.
Forecast:
Medium-high production, depending on spring and summer rains.
Weather Conditions:
Temperatures: High, with especially hot summers.
Rainfall: Sparse and poorly distributed throughout the year.
Olive Grove Behavior:
Alternate Bearing: Alternation indicates potential recovery in production for 2024/25.
Phytosanitary Status: Pests under control, with continuous monitoring needed.
Rainfall:
Low, affecting irrigation capacity.
Forecast:
Moderate production, highly dependent on climatic conditions in the coming months.
Weather Conditions:
Temperatures: Very high during summer and warm spring.
Rainfall: Insufficient, with persistent drought in some areas.
Olive Grove Behavior:
Rainfall:
Medium production, highly dependent on water availability and irrigation management. A recovery in olive oil production is expected for the 2024/25 campaign, especially in Meknes and Fes, thanks to alternate bearing and improved agronomic practices. The adoption of more intensive production systems provides an advantage in terms of efficiency and water management.
Quality: The quality of the oil could be high if phytosanitary conditions are maintained and water resources are managed properly.
Precipitation and Irrigation: The availability of water is a critical factor that will significantly affect the final production. Farmers are advised to efficiently manage available water and consider implementing more efficient irrigation techniques.
It is important to continuously monitor climatic and phytosanitary conditions to adjust forecasts and make informed decisions about crop management. This forecast has been made months in advance, which must be taken into account when interpreting the data.